Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to ARI 26, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson. PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.83 EP
63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model