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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 28 – Seattle Seahawks 18

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 7-C.Catanzaro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model