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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model