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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:18) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model