4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to ARI 9, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model