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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to ARI 36, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.07 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model