Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 88

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

(6:40) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ATL 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.39 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 88, worth -5.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model