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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 38 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.91 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model