4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 38

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to ATL 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP