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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 38

What Actually Happened

(:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ATL 22, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP