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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 31

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to ATL 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model