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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 28 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.33 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP