Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ATL 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems to SF 49 for 39 yards (85-J.Hamm; 46-M.Ball). PENALTY on ATL-16-J.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at ATL 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.42 EP
69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model