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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to ATL 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at SF 47 for 42 yards (5-B.Pinion).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.22 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP