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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's 10th 50-plus yard field ties NFL record set by Blair Walsh.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model