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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 95

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to PHI 35, Center-46-M.Cox. 34-K.Barner to BAL 43 for 22 yards (33-M.Elam).

The Three Options

GO -3.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.10 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 95, worth -5.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 53, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model