4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model