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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 9

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(14:51) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model