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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 39

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(12:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.50 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model