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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 11 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model