Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 44

New England Patriots 3 – Denver Broncos 3

(4:51) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to DEN 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.46 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.61 EP

KICK -1.29 EP

37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
63% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model