4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 26

New England Patriots 16 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 29-L.Blount up the middle to DEN 26 for no gain (58-V.Miller, 51-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP