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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 30

Denver Broncos 3 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Thomas (32-D.McCourty).

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.98 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model