4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 55

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to NE 15, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.07 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP