Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 93

Denver Broncos 3 – New England Patriots 13

(11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 47, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.02 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 93, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model