Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 61

New England Patriots 13 – Denver Broncos 3

(12:46) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to DEN 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model