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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 88

Denver Broncos 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to NE 30, Center-45-T.Gafford. 11-J.Edelman to NE 35 for 5 yards (49-Q.Gause).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.62 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model