Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to NE 20, Center-45-T.Gafford. 11-J.Edelman to NE 23 for 3 yards (14-C.Latimer). PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model