Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 59

Denver Broncos 3 – New England Patriots 10

(10:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to NE 17, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model