Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 67

Denver Broncos 3 – New England Patriots 10

(13:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to NE 9, Center-45-T.Gafford. 11-J.Edelman to NE 25 for 16 yards (14-C.Latimer).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.36 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model