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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 79

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to MIA 41, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 48 for 7 yards (30-N.Marshall; 45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model