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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to NYJ 25, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model