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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 16

New York Jets 13 – Miami Dolphins 34

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 17-C.Peake INTERCEPTED by 36-T.Lippett at MIA 0. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.80 EP