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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 34 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to NYJ 45, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.65 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP