Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 34 – New York Jets 10

(2:28) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to NYJ 43, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.95 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model