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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 47

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left guard to MIA 47 for no gain (90-E.Mitchell). New York Jets challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #2 at 03:49.)

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.00 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model