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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 30-T.Gurley left end to SEA 6 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner; 50-K.Wright). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 30-T.Gurley left end to SEA 7 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 50-K.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model