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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 53

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to LA 13, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-91-C.Marsh, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.38 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model