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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 86

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to SEA 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for 13 yards (54-B.Hager).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model