4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to LA 14, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP