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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to LA 31, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-91-C.Marsh.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.11 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model