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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 4-S.Hauschka 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model