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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to IND 17, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.03 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model