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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Indianapolis Colts 34

What Actually Happened

(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Patterson (40-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.45 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP