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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 34 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(7:54) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 41 yards to MIN 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP