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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Indianapolis Colts 34

What Actually Happened

(12:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.83 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model