4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 14

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model