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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(13:04) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to IND 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model