Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 70

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Giants 7

(6:45) 6-S.Martin punts 63 yards to NYG 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.79 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model