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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 78

New York Giants 17 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(:25) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to DET 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 29 for 2 yards (52-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.19 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -2.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 35, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model